I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflictfatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. Iidentify causal effects by instrumenting for conflict using pre-sample ethno-linguistic share.Headline estimates are...

This paper argues that corruption patterns are endogenous to political structures. Thus, corruption can be systemic and planned rather than decentralized and coincidental. In an economic system without law or property rights, a kleptocratic state may arise as a predatory hierarchy from a state...

This paper investigates the role that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) played during periods of economic sanctions against Iran. Using difference-in-difference techniques and exploiting survey data on the manufacturing sector, our analysis shows that the sanctions reduced revenues, profits, and...

This paper assesses how monetary policy outcomes affect fragility. Diving into the universe of the most prominent combinations of pursued monetary policy objectives across fragile settings, we examine the relationships between monetary policy outcomes and fragility and find the combination of...

The end of the Cold War has ushered in significant changes in worldwide military spending. This paper finds that the easing of (1) international tensions, (2) regional tensions, and (3) the existence of IMF-supported programs are related to lower military spending and a higher share of...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the frequency and severity of terrorism affectgovernment revenue and expenditure during the period 1970-2013 using a panel dataset on153 countries. We find that terrorism has only a marginal negative effect on tax revenueperformance, after...

This paper studies the evolution of worldwide military spending during 1970-2018. It finds thatmilitary spending in relation to GDP is converging, but into three separate groups of countries. Inthe largest group, responsible for 90 percent of worldwide spending, outlays have remainedstubbornly...

Using a panel of 101 low- and middle-income countries with data covering the period 1980-2012, this paper applies various econometric approaches that deal with endogeneity issues to assess the impact of food price shocks on socio-political instability once fiscal policy and remittances have been...

While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally...

We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed...