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particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions …. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306789
detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework alsocaptures the impact of current and planned policies on … investment, partly offsetting the sharpdecline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942332
result of low investment. Latin America is poorer because of lower human capital levels and lower TFP-not because of a lower … business climate indicators converge rapidly. Poor countries without those attributes do not. We show that low investment is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828058
Recent literature has shown that corporate indebtedness affects firm-level investment behavior but not necessarily … substitute depressed investment by their financially constrained competitors. The increase in investment, primarily driven by … equilibrium effects are unambiguously countercyclical because the increase in investment by unconstrained firms does not crowd out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014348807
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085612
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086308
, consumption, and investment growth, but only up to a certain point. At very high levels, such as those observed in many advanced … economies, financial depth amplifies consumption and investment volatility. We also find strong evidence that deeper financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086316
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086323
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088734
This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073778