Showing 1 - 10 of 438
Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the … Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively … the importance of monetary policy, predicting that a permanently low growth and low inflation environment would …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906878
Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the 'Bund premium' as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858387
Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change and sovereign risk. This paper therefore investigates the impact of climate change...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828232
We estimate the latent factors that underlie the dynamics of the sovereign bond yield curve inMorocco during 2004-14 based on the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. On this basis, weexplore the interaction between macroeconomic variables and the yield curve, which is ofdirect relevance to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977868
Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996064
, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096274
We analyze the relationship between global and country-specific factors and emerging market debt spreads from three different angles. First, we aim to disentangle the effect of global and country-specific developments, and find that while both country-specific and global developments are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078374
This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more than 80 percent of term premia in advanced economies. In particular they tend to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071934
This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts … overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks … initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238518
Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banks' ability to deliver stable inflation … and minimize price dispersion. Relying on daily interest rates and inflation forecasts from major financial institutions … the dispersion of inflation expectations, a proxy for the extent of anchoring, which is based on the same analysts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252031