We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial,...

We introduce two types of agent heterogeneity in a calibrated epidemiological search model. First, some agents cannot afford staying home to minimize their virus exposure, while others can. Our results show that these poor agents bear most of the epidemic's health costs. Moreover, we show that...

This paper investigates whether the COVID-19 recession led to an increase in demand for digital occupations in the United States. Using O*NET to capture the digital content of occupations, we find that regions that were hit harder by the COVID-19 recession experienced a larger increase in the...

This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and...

This paper argues that corruption patterns are endogenous to political structures. Thus, corruption can be systemic and planned rather than decentralized and coincidental. In an economic system without law or property rights, a kleptocratic state may arise as a predatory hierarchy from a state...

The end of the Cold War has ushered in significant changes in worldwide military spending. This paper finds that the easing of (1) international tensions, (2) regional tensions, and (3) the existence of IMF-supported programs are related to lower military spending and a higher share of...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the frequency and severity of terrorism affectgovernment revenue and expenditure during the period 1970-2013 using a panel dataset on153 countries. We find that terrorism has only a marginal negative effect on tax revenueperformance, after...

This paper studies the evolution of worldwide military spending during 1970-2018. It finds thatmilitary spending in relation to GDP is converging, but into three separate groups of countries. Inthe largest group, responsible for 90 percent of worldwide spending, outlays have remainedstubbornly...

Using a panel of 101 low- and middle-income countries with data covering the period 1980-2012, this paper applies various econometric approaches that deal with endogeneity issues to assess the impact of food price shocks on socio-political instability once fiscal policy and remittances have been...

While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally...