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Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies : A Decomposition into Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Factors

Lian, Weicheng; Freitag, Andreas - 2022

, and services; (iii) global indexes such as oil price, shipping costs, and a global supply chain pressure index do not …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082956

Public Debt and Household Inflation Expectations

Grigoli, Francesco; Sandri, Damiano - 2023

We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014355804

Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability

Deghi, Andrea - 2020

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831613

Macro-Financial Stability in the COVID-19 Crisis : Some Reflections

Adrian, Tobias; Natalucci, Fabio M.; Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed - 2023

The global financial system has shown remarkable resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite a sharp decline in …-induced crisis, major central banks acted swiftly and decisively, cutting policy rates, introducing new asset purchase programs … the pandemic crisis has underscored the importance of policies in preventing calamitous financial outcomes, it has also …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258592

Too Low for Too Long : Could Extended Periods of Ultra Easy Monetary Policy Have Harmful Effects?

Jafarov, Etibar; Minnella, Enrico - 2023

Extended periods of ultra-easy monetary policy in advanced economies have rekindled debates about the zombification of weak companies and its impact on resource allocation, economic growth, inflation, and financial stability. Using both firm-level and macroeconomic data, we find that recessions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350294

Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on Financial Conditions : Evidence from the United States

Zdzienicka, Aleksandra - 2016

The Global Financial Crisis has reopened discussions on the role of the monetary policy in preserving financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998798

Quarterly Projection Model for Vietnam : A Hybrid Approach for Monetary Policy Implementation

Epstein, Natan P.; Górnicka, Lucyna; Ha, Nga; Musil, Karel - 2022

We present a newly developed Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) for Vietnam. This QPM represents an extended version of the canonical New Keynesian semi-structural model, accounting for Vietnam-specific factors, including a hybrid monetary policy framework. The model incorporates the array of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081236

Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Vitek, Francis - 2014

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040410

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Alichi, Ali - 2018

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913892

What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence from an Algorithmic Identification Procedure

Willems, Tim - 2018

As the 'Volcker shock' is believed to have generated useful information on the effects ofmonetary policy, this paper develops a simple procedure to identify other unanticipatedmonetary contractions. The approach is applied to a panel data set spanning 162 countries(over the period 1970-2017), in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012909409