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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comelli, Fabio - 2014

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053955

Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

Costa Navajas, Matias - 2014

The paper tests the effectiveness of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) as harbingers of banking crises, using multivariate logit models to see whether FSIs, broad macroeconomic indicators, and institutional indicators can indeed predict crisis occurrences. The analysis draws upon a data set...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061184

Taylor Visits Africa

Goncalves, Carlos - 2016

de facto pursuing a strategy more akin to a Taylor Rule. Estimations of small-scale models for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania … place in Kenya and Tanzania. In Uganda, these errors are much smaller, in fact similar in size to Taylor Rule deviations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998791

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics : A Narrative Approach

Berg, Andrew - 2013

policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074691

Assessing Bank Competition within the East African Community

Gaertner, Matthew - 2012

: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111386

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk : Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Bellon, Matthieu - 2020

fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the … are most prevalent and which consumption-smoothing mechanisms are available. In Tanzania, agricultural shocks are an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527

Tanzania's Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty

Treichel, Volker - 2021

Since 1995, Tanzania has made major progress in economic reform and macroeconomic stabilization, resulting in strong … growth and low inflation. This paper reviews Tanzania's growth performance and prospects and assesses the impact of growth on … policies should allow Tanzania to grow above 5 percent a year over the medium term. Furthermore, it finds that growth since …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318084

Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks from Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations

Akyapi, Berkay; Bellon, Matthieu; Massetti, Emanuele - 2022

A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of extreme events that occur at a higher time frequency or higher spatial resolution. To address...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079013

Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics

Kinda, Tidiane; Lengyel, Andras; Chahande, Kaustubh - 2022

Many countries have deployed substantial fiscal packages to cushion the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. A historical look at past pandemics and epidemics highlights concomitant public sector support in response to health crises. This paper assesses how fiscal multipliers could vary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079424

The Effects of Economic Shocks on Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations

Chang, Yoosoon; Gómez-Rodríguez, Fabio; Hong, Gee Hee - 2022

In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079902