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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Comelli, Fabio - 2014
We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053955
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Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises
Costa Navajas, Matias - 2014
The paper tests the effectiveness of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) as harbingers of banking crises, using multivariate logit models to see whether FSIs, broad macroeconomic indicators, and institutional indicators can indeed predict crisis occurrences. The analysis draws upon a data set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061184
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Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk : Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania
Bellon, Matthieu - 2020
fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the … are most prevalent and which consumption-smoothing mechanisms are available. In Tanzania, agricultural shocks are an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527
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Tanzania's Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty
Treichel, Volker - 2021
Since 1995, Tanzania has made major progress in economic reform and macroeconomic stabilization, resulting in strong … growth and low inflation. This paper reviews Tanzania's growth performance and prospects and assesses the impact of growth on … policies should allow Tanzania to grow above 5 percent a year over the medium term. Furthermore, it finds that growth since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318084
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Taylor Visits Africa
Goncalves, Carlos - 2016
de facto pursuing a strategy more akin to a Taylor Rule. Estimations of small-scale models for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania … place in Kenya and Tanzania. In Uganda, these errors are much smaller, in fact similar in size to Taylor Rule deviations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998791
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What Caused the Global Financial Crisis? Evidence on the Drivers of Financial Imbalances 1999-2007
Nier, Erlend W. - 2011
This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: (i) rising global imbalances (capital flows), (ii) monetary policy that might have been too loose, (iii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131803
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The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows : Evidence from Asia
Jain-Chandra, Sonali - 2012
The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097282
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Taxation and Development - Again
Keen, Michael - 2012
Issues of taxation and development, which have long been a central concern of the IMF, have attracted wider and renewed interest in the last few years. This paper reflects on three broad lessons of experience: that developing countries differ vastly in tax matters, and in ways that are less than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098586
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Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries
Cevik, Serhan - 2012
This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098603
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Quality of Government and Living Standards : Adjusting for the Efficiency of Public Spending
Grigoli, Francesco - 2012
It is generally acknowledged that the government’s output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution, adopted by national accounts systems, is to equate output to input costs. However, several studies estimate significant inefficiencies in government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098623