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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comelli, Fabio - 2014

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29 EMs between January 1995 and December 2012. Stronger real GDP growth rates and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053955

Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

Costa Navajas, Matias - 2014

The paper tests the effectiveness of financial soundness indicators (FSIs) as harbingers of banking crises, using multivariate logit models to see whether FSIs, broad macroeconomic indicators, and institutional indicators can indeed predict crisis occurrences. The analysis draws upon a data set...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061184

Taylor Visits Africa

Goncalves, Carlos - 2016

de facto pursuing a strategy more akin to a Taylor Rule. Estimations of small-scale models for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania … place in Kenya and Tanzania. In Uganda, these errors are much smaller, in fact similar in size to Taylor Rule deviations …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998791

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk : Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Bellon, Matthieu - 2020

fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the … are most prevalent and which consumption-smoothing mechanisms are available. In Tanzania, agricultural shocks are an …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527

Assessing Bank Competition within the East African Community

Gaertner, Matthew - 2012

: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111386

Tanzania's Growth Process and Success in Reducing Poverty

Treichel, Volker - 2021

Since 1995, Tanzania has made major progress in economic reform and macroeconomic stabilization, resulting in strong … growth and low inflation. This paper reviews Tanzania's growth performance and prospects and assesses the impact of growth on … policies should allow Tanzania to grow above 5 percent a year over the medium term. Furthermore, it finds that growth since …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318084

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics : A Narrative Approach

Berg, Andrew - 2013

policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074691

Fuel Price Subsidies in Gabon : Fiscal Cost and Distributional Impact

Leigh, Daniel - 2006

This paper looks at the fiscal cost and distributional impact of implicit fuel price subsidies in Gabon, where fuel prices have remained largely unchanged since 2002. Using estimated implicit import parity prices, we evaluate the total fiscal cost of the subsidies at 3.2 percent of non-oil GDP...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779095

What Do Remittances Do? Analyzing the Private Remittance Transmission Mechanism in El Salvador

Saca, Nolvia N. - 2006

Family remittances are important for El Salvador's economy. This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on El Salvador's economy and the spillover effects on the other Central American countries. A vector autoregression (VAR) model is formulated, consisting of real and monetary variables. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779101

Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy

Vitek, Francis - 2014

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012678772

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