Showing 1 - 10 of 287
We provide a long-run perspective on neutral interest rates with new estimates for 16 advanced economies since the 1870s using the Laubach and Williams approach. Our estimates differ substantially from commonly used proxies. We find that, while cross-country heterogeneity was significant in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350824
This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254728
This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258782
We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r∗) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013295129
This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well above the average of emerging market inflation targeting regimes. The adoption of an inflation-targeting regime and better economic fundamentals (reduction in inflation volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108621
This paper sheds light on a narrow but crucial question in finance: What should be the parameters of a model of the short-term real interest rate? Although models for the nominal interest rate are well studied and estimated, dynamics of the real interest rate are rarely explored. Simple ad hoc...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073677
We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of globalreal interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes inthe natural real interest rate-i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potentialand constant inflation. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868461
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets …, asset prices and inflation. Korea's demographic trends seem to track Japan's with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity … reforms. While Korea's corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan's in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962151
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach … index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis … and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan's recent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950422
This paper analyzes various reform options for Japan's public pension in light of large fiscal consolidation needs of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088412