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Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals

Cevik, Serhan - 2020

improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The … multivariate models with macroeconomic indicators. The Google Trends-augmented model improves predictability of tourist arrivals by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840606

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk : Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Bellon, Matthieu - 2020

Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the vulnerability to shocks across household types (e.g....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527

Rising Child Poverty in Europe : Mitigating the Scarring from the Covid-19 Pandemic

Hallaert, Jean-Jacques; Vassileva, Iglika; Chen, Tingyun - 2023

Child poverty increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 alone, the number of children suffering from poverty in the EU increased by 19 percent, or close to 1 million. Left unaddressed, this would not only affect individuals’ life prospects and well-being but also have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014344162

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms the Case of Italy

Lusinyan, Lusine - 2013

Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), attempts to quantify the potential gains to the economy from a comprehensive package...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086322

Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances : Some Conventional Views Reconsidered

Meredith, Guy - 2007

We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777932

Unemployment Surges in the EU : The Role of Risk Premium Shocks

Bakker, Bas Berend - 2019

In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currenciespegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers havefocused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses onthe impact on supply. We show that risk premium...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889134

Italy : Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package

Andrle, Michal - 2018

This paper seeks to quantify the net benefits of a comprehensive reform package aimedat addressing Italy's inter-related challenges. Specifically, it simulates the growth andcompetitiveness effects of a package of fiscal, financial, wage bargaining, and otherstructural reforms. Credible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012922623

The Lack of Convergence of Latin-America Compared with Cesee : Is Low Investment to Blame?

Bakker, Bas Berend - 2020

In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828058

Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-Side Framework : The Case of Argentina

Lusinyan, Lusine - 2018

The paper uses a supply-side framework based on a production function approach to assess the role of structural reforms in boosting long-term GDP growth in Argentina. The impact of product, labor, trade, and tax reforms on each supply-side channel-capital accumulation, labor utilization, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912483

An Alternative Proof of Minimum Trace Reconciliation

Ando, Sakai; Narita, Futoshi - 2022

Minimum trace reconciliation, developed by Wickramasuriya et. al. (2019), is an innovation in the literature of forecast reconciliation. The proof, however, is indirect and not easy to extend to more general situations. This paper provides an alternative proof based on the first-order condition...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079899

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