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Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102206
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy,disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensivemacrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover transmission...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002153
This paper investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model augmented with financial frictions. Empirical results indicate that remittances - as a share of GDP - have a significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024443
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040410
forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060545
The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966549
cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector Auto regression and New …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028667
Thailand had to endure three major shocks during 2008-2011: the global financial crisis, the Japanese earthquake, and the Thai floods of 2011. Over this period, consistent with its inflation targeting framework, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) let the exchange rate depreciate and cut interest rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096276
This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097286
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082172