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Hysteresis in Labor Markets? Evidence from Professional Long-Term Forecasts
Bluedorn, John C. - 2019
-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467
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Fiscal Crises
Gerling, Kerstin - 2017
A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956473
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Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress : Evidence from the Extreme Bound Analysis
Bruns, Martin - 2016
Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries' vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996082
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Predicting Fiscal Crises
Cerovic, Svetlana - 2018
This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912485
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Output Losses in Europe During COVID-19 : What Role for Policies?
Ari, Anil; Atsebi, Jean-Marc; Domenech, Mar - 2022
We use a decomposition methodology to analyze the factors underlying the differentiated output losses of European countries in 2020. Our findings are fourfold: First, 2020 growth outcomes can be explained by differences in mobility, underlying growth trends, and pre-pandemic country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079903
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Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States : An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
Alichi, Ali - 2019
) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause … financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent …, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889155
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How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP
Fletcher, Kevin Timothy - 2015
value of GDP via the fiscal stance's effects on the output gap and hysteresis. We find that the absolute size of the fiscal … boost the present value of GDP via effects on the output gap and hysteresis. The potential success of such efforts relies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024440
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News-Based Sentiment Indicators
Huang, Chengyu - 2020
We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843513
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Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?
Billmeier, Andreas - 2006
This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783143
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Measuring a Roller Coaster : Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap
Billmeier, Andreas - 2006
The output gap which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783206