empirical finding when estimated with different expectation formation processes. When inflation becomes de-anchored and … expectations drift, we can observe high inflation even with a mildly positive output gap in response to cost-push shocks. The … normal times to predict the cost of reining in inflation. Our optimal policy exercises prescribe early monetary policy …

separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job … prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank …

-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the … Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission … of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our …

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to … monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has …-fledged inflation targeting …

We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database …, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks … response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity …

Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose … core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i … inflation and unemployment rate. The approach has potential to help understand forces shaping price pressures during the …

This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the … findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad … retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing …

Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses …-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change … the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of …

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup … (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and … obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …