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Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations : Evidence from the Euro Area

Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna; Zdarek, Vaclav - 2022

This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts … current inflation is high, and declines when inflation is low, consistent with a zero lower bound of expectations. Fourth … average expectations (and of actual inflation) to shocks became more muted post-GFC in the euro area, but not in the U.S …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238518

Rational Speculation, Financial Crises, and Optimal Policy Responses

Surti, Jay - 2006

This paper develops a theory of the onset of financial crises by solving for the optimal trading strategies of speculators in financial markets, in a model where each speculator tries to coordinate her trades with the market's by observing the decisions of other speculators, while simultaneously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783234

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Taylor, Alan M. - 2014

Consider two views of the global financial crisis. One view looks across the border: it blames external imbalances, the unprecedented current account deficits and surpluses in recent years. Another view looks within the border: it faults domestic financial systems where risks originated in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060542

A New Claims-Based Unemployment Dataset : Application to Postwar Recoveries Across U.S. States

Fieldhouse, Andrew; Howard, Sean; Koch, Christoffer; … - 2022

Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U.S. states going back to January 1947. The constructed series are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081630

Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies : A Decomposition into Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Factors

Lian, Weicheng; Freitag, Andreas - 2022

Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i) both the cyclical and non-cyclical parts had surges across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082956

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in Bolivia

Guerson, Alejandro - 2016

This paper explores inflation dynamics and monetary policy in Bolivia. Bolivia's monetary policy framework has been effective in stabilizing inflation in recent times. This has been a challenging task given high price volatility of key consumer goods subject to recurrent supply shocks,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998770

How to Better Measure Hedonic Residential Property Price Indexes

Silver, Mick S. - 2017

Hedonic regressions are used for property price index measurement to control for changes in the quality-mix of properties transacted. The paper consolidates the hedonic time dummy approach, characteristics approach, and imputation approaches. A practical hedonic methodology is proposed that (i)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966557

Mining Spillovers in Chile

Pérez Ruiz, Esther - 2017

Chile's small open economy with significant mismatch between the production and consumption baskets may be represented by three stylized sectors, a commodity sector, a non-commodity tradable sector, and a non-tradable sector. This paper estimates the effect of copper price shocks on mining,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948525

Financial Resource Curse in Resource-Rich Countries

Mlachila, Montfort - 2017

Why do commodity-dependent developing countries have typically lower levels of financial development than their peers? The literature has proposed many possible explanations, but it typically does not dwell on the deep mechanisms that drive such an outcome. In this paper, we argue that the main...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950378

Policy, Risk and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Vitek, Francis - 2017

This paper develops a structural macro econometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies, to facilitate multilaterally consistent macrofinancial policy, risk and spillover analysis. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956470