This paper studies the dynamics of external accounts during 278 economic recession events in the past 60 years and …

medium-term business cyclefluctuations in GDP, its components and the unemployment rate. Additionally, it …

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession … unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …

1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from … other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession … years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …