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fertility, and (iv) there is a need for more public spending on childcare for age 6-11 in Japan and Korea to help women continue …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024437
reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing … literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework and find that China's demographics should … decades, individual countries' convergence toward the simulated savings pattern will be influenced by their past divergences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082859
This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895118
Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895121
Korea’s economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013302780
Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the working age population has had a significant negative impact on total factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962168
Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889159
Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF's Global Integrated Fiscal and Monetary Model (GIMF) and find substantial deflationary pressures from aging, mainly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048366
How does a shrinking population affect the housing market? In this study, drawing on Japan's experience, we find that there exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change. Due to the durability of housing structures, the decline in housing prices associated with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315094
Climate and demographic changes are two major long-term trends that are evolving simultaneously. The global population is aging, while climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters and lowering productivity. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264529