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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Comelli, Fabio - 2014
We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict in-sample and out … of experiencing a currency crisis, while high levels of credit to the private sector increase it. We find that the logit … and probit EWS out-of-sample performances are broadly similar, and that the EWS performance can be very sensitive both to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053955
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The Pre-Crisis Capital Flow Surge to Emerging Europe : Did Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Make a Difference?
Atoyan, Ruben - 2012
A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorption-reducing effect, as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098584
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Riding Global Financial Waves : The Economic Impact of Global Financial Shocks on Emerging Market Economies
Adler, Gustavo - 2012
Over the past two decades, most emerging market economies witnessed two key developments. A marked process of financial integration with the rest of the world, arguably turning these economies more vulnerable to global financial shocks; and an improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals, helping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098620
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Surging Capital Flows to Emerging Asia : Facts, Impacts, and Responses
Balakrishnan, Ravi - 2012
Net capital flows to emerging Asia rebounded at a record pace following the global financial crisis, raising concerns about overheating and financial stability. This paper documents the size and composition of the most recent surge to Asian emerging markets from a historical perspective and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102274
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Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets : Determinants and Spillovers
De Bock, Reinout - 2012
This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108615
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International Reserves and Rollover Risk
Bianchi, Javier - 2013
Two striking facts about international capital flows in emerging economies motivate this paper: (1) Governments hold large amounts of international reserves, for which they obtain a return lower than their borrowing cost. (2) Purchases of domestic assets by nonresidents and purchases of foreign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086313
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Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets
Ozkan, F. Gulcin - 2013
The recent global financial crisis was the first in recent history that was triggered by problems in the financial system of the mature economies. Existing work on financial crisis in emerging market countries, however, almost exclusively focus on the role of financial frictions in the domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088405
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The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis
Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali - 2017
Using a sample of 34 emerging markets and developing economies over the period 2009Q3-2015Q4, the paper employs a panel framework to study the determinants of capital flows, both net and gross, across a wide range of instruments. The baseline regressions are then extended to focus on high and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956498
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Internal Capital Markets in Business Groups and the Propagation of Credit Supply Shocks
Shi, Yu - 2019
Using business registry data from China, we show that internal capital markets in business groups can propagate corporate shareholders' credit supply shocks to their subsidiaries. An average of 16.7% local bank credit growth where corporate shareholders are located would increase subsidiaries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868268
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Financial De-Dollarization : A Global Perspective and the Peruvian Experience
Catão, Luis - 2016
We re-appraise the cross-country evidence on the dollarization of financial systems in emerging market economies. Amidst striking heterogeneity of patterns across regions, we identify a broad global trend towards financial sector de-dollarization from the early 2000s to the eve of the global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977738