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Machine Learning and Causality : The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth

Tiffin, Andrew - 2019

Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858391

The Global Trade Slowdown : Cyclical or Structural?

Constantinescu, Cristina - 2015

This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027665

Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism

Cevik, Serhan - 2016

This paper provides an empirical analysis of how the frequency and severity of terrorism affectgovernment revenue and … expenditure during the period 1970-2013 using a panel dataset on153 countries. We find that terrorism has only a marginal negative … alternative specifications and empirical strategies. On the other hand, we find strongevidence that terrorism is associated with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002155

The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets

Johnston, R. Barry - 2021

the danger of terrorism and its complex repercussions on the financial markets. This paper explores the ways in which … strengthened so as to further enhance the resilience of financial markets to terrorism …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318063

When is Economic Growth Pro-Poor? Experiences in Malaysia and Pakistan

Khan, Mahmood Hasan - 2021

This paper focuses on two central issues related to the contrasting experiences of Malaysia and Pakistan regarding …. Malaysia, unlike Pakistan, was able to sustain rapid economic growth with equally impressive reduction in poverty because the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317896

Does Money Matter for U.S. Inflation? Evidence from Bayesian Vars

Berger, Helge - 2008

inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. This holds for a long...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772212

Energy Subsidies and Public Social Spending : Theory and Evidence

Ebeke, Christian - 2015

This paper shows that high energy subsidies and low public social spending can emerge as an equilibrium outcome of a political game between the elite and the middle-class when the provision of public goods is subject to bottlenecks, reflecting weak domestic institutions. We test this and other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021781

State Institutions and Tax Capacity : An Empirical Investigation of Causality

Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele - 2019

Would better state institutions increase tax collection, or would higher tax collection help improve state institutions? In the absence of conclusive guidance from theory, this paper searches for an empirical answer to this question, using a panel dataset covering 110 non-resource-rich countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863974

Canada's Potential Growth : Another Victim of the Crisis

Estevão, Marcello M. - 2011

This study investigates the impact of the current financial crisis on Canada's potential GDP growth. Using a simple accounting framework to decompose trend GDP growth into changes in capital, labor services and total factor productivity, we find a sizeable drop in Canadian potential growth in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134722

The East African Community : Prospects for Sustained Growth

McAuliffe, Catherine - 2012

The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade-the ambition of most...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096275

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