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Exploring the Output Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Low Income Countries
Honda, Jiro - 2020
What do we know about the output effects of fiscal policy in low income countries (LICs)? There are very few empirical studies on the subject. This paper fills this gap by estimating the output effects of government spending shocks in LICs. Our analysis-based on the local projection method-finds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831612
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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers During Protracted Recessions
Dell'Erba, Salvatore - 2015
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda's (2005) local projection methodology, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031164
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Fiscal Consolidations and Growth : Does Speed Matter?
Pennings, Steven - 2013
Should fiscal consolidations be front-loaded or proceed at a more steady pace, and how does this affect growth? We make an attempt to address this question using a three-step methodology. First, we modify a standard regression of growth on consolidation size to allow speed to affect the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071926
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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
Blanchard, Olivier J. - 2013
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085993
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Tax Reforms and Fiscal Shock Smoothing
Amaglobeli, David - 2019
This paper examines the role of tax policy reforms in enhancing fiscal shock smoothing in a panel of 13 OECD economies … magnitude of shock smoothing increases from an average of 2 percent to 3-31/2 percent following the reform. The effects are … symmetric-that is, the increase in shock smoothing following a reform expanding the tax base (rate) is similar to the decline in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868266
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Would Population Aging Change the Output Effects of Fiscal Policy?
Honda, Jiro - 2020
Would population aging affect the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus? Despite the renewed focus on population aging, there are few empirical studies on the output effects of fiscal policy in aging economies. Our study fills this gap by analyzing this issue in OECD countries. We find that, as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828221
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Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union : A Model-Based Approach
Forni, Lorenzo - 2014
We assess the macroeconomic effects of a sovereign restructuring in a small economy belonging to a monetary union by simulating a dynamic general equilibrium model. In line with the empirical evidence, we make the following three key assumptions. First, sovereign debt is held by domestic agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059858
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Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria : Low But Still Relevant
Muir, Dirk - 2013
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085612
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Electoral Cycles in Tax Reforms
David, Antonio C.; Sever, Can - 2022
We examine electoral cycles in tax reforms using monthly data over the period of 1990-2018 for 22 advanced economies and emerging markets. We show that governments tend to avoid announcing tax reforms during the months running up to elections. In addition, they become more likely to announce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241939
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How Accurate are Private Sector Forecasts? Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth
2021
This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212035