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Contagion of Fear : Is the Impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Risk Really Indiscriminate?

Cevik, Serhan; Ozturkkal, Belma - 2021

This paper investigates the impact of infectious diseases on the evolution of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for a panel of 77 advanced and developing countries. Using annual data over the 2004-2020 period, we find that infectious-disease outbreaks have no discernible effect on CDS...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250064

Overcoming Data Sparsity : A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Barhoumi, Karim; Choi, Seung Mo; Iyer, Tara; Li, Jiakun; … - 2022

The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083501

The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe : A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection

Baba, Chikako; Duval, Romain; Lan, Ting; Topalova, Petia B. - 2023

In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257255

Here Comes the Change : The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe

Binici, Mahir; Centorrino, Samuele; Cevik, Serhan; … - 2022

Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264538

Chasing the Sun and Catching the Wind : Energy Transition and Electricity Prices in Europe

Cevik, Serhan; Ninomiya, Keitaro - 2022

.This paper investigates the impact of green power resources on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices at a … reduction in wholesale electricity prices in Europe, with an average impact of 0.6 percent for each 1 percentage points increase … effect on electricity prices. On the other hand, while quantile estimation results are mixed with regards to the impact of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014241884

Good Will Hunting : Do Disasters Make Us More Charitable?

Cevik, Serhan - 2023

disaster hits? There is evidence that people exposed to natural disasters tend to behave more philanthropically, but most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254587

The Macroeconomic (and Distributional) Effects of Public Investment in Developing Economies

Furceri, Davide - 2017

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943953

Taking Stock : Who Benefited from the Oil Price Shocks?

Cerdeiro, Diego - 2017

The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945690

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment : Evidence from Advanced Economies

Abiad, Abdul G. - 2015

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021776

Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU : Application to the COVID Shock

Parlak, Vivian; Salinas, Gonzalo; Vargas, Jose - 2022

We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306756

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