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Spillovers to Emerging Markets from US Economic News and Monetary Policy
Engler, Philipp; Piazza, Roberto; Sher, Galen - 2023
When the U.S. economy sneezes, do emerging markets catch a cold? We show that economic news, and not just monetary policy, in the United States affects financial conditions in emerging markets. News about U.S. employment has the strongest effects, followed by news about economic activity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350292
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Inflation Dynamics in the Western Balkans
Minasyan, Gohar; Ozturk, Ezgi O.; Pinat, Magali; Wang, … - 2023
After trailing Euro Area inflation closely in the recent past, inflation in the Western Balkans has accelerated faster since early 2022 on the back of the shocks to global commodity prices, strong recovery from the pandemic, and lingering supply bottlenecks. This paper employs two complementary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256591
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The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe : A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Baba, Chikako; Duval, Romain; Lan, Ting; Topalova, Petia B. - 2023
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257255
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A Bottom-Up Reduced Form Phillips Curve for the Euro Area
McGregor, Thomas; Toscani, Frederik - 2022
We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore which factors drove the deterioration in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264528
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Global Bonding : Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?
Bayoumi, Tamim - 2013
This paper uses a novel variant of identification through hetroscedacity to estimate spillovers across U.S., Euro area … reverberate around the world much more strongly than shocks from other regions, including the Euro area, while inward spillovers … to the U.S. from elsewhere are minimal. There is also evidence of two-way spillovers between the UK and Euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084151
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Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis
Goldfajn, Ilan - 2021
This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to increase significantly during the crisis period, whereas the equity market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212114
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International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries
Agarwal, Isha - 2018
We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929931
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Cars in Europe : Supply Chains and Spillovers During COVID-19 Times
Boranova, Vizhdan; Huidrom, Raju; Ozturk, Ezgi O.; … - 2022
value added of the car sector attributable to spillovers via supply chains within and across borders. Within borders, the … associated demand effects. Across borders, spillovers from the pandemic-induced labor supply shocks that originate in other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013295148
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Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers : An Application to Covid-19
Das, Sonali; Wingender, Philippe; Pugacheva, Evgenia; … - 2022
This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the … past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers … historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013305634
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Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda
Vlček, Jan; Pranovich, Mikhail; Hitayezu, Patrick; … - 2021
National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-looking framework, which mobilizes and organizes resources and sets processes for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013249729