Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 138
Cover Image
How We Missed the Inflation Surge : An Anatomy of Post-2020 Inflation Forecast Errors
Koch, Christoffer; Noureldin, Diaa - 2023
This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market economies. The findings reveal evidence of forecast bias...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354481
Cover Image
How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada
Matheson, Troy - 2019
results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860993
Cover Image
Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality
Benchimol, Jonathan - 2019
The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864097
Cover Image
Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals
Cevik, Serhan - 2020
improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840606
Cover Image
What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low : Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach
Abdih, Yasser - 2016
factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977854
Cover Image
Big Players Out of Synch : Spillovers Implications of US and Euro Area Shocks
Osorio-Buitron, Carolina - 2015
Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011192
Cover Image
News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency : A Simple Approach
Matheson, Troy - 2014
We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve's May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046304
Cover Image
Increasing Productivity Growth in Middle Income Countries
Abdychev, Aidar - 2015
Many small middle-income countries (SMICs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have experienced a moderation in growth in recent years. Although factor accumulation, most notably capital deepening, was crucial to the success of many SMICs historically, this growth model appears to have run its course....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028660
Cover Image
Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan
Sekine, Toshitaka - 2006
obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782834
Cover Image
Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation
sun, tao - 2006
This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the … combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the forecasting power of a variety of monthly indicators purely on …-run structural determinants. The result is a promising model for forecasting Thai core inflation over horizons up to 10, 24, and 55 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783174