The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the...

Superficial examination of aggregate gross cross-border capital inflow data suggests that therewas no substitution between portfolio inflows and bank loans in recent years. However, ournovel analysis of disaggregate inflows (both by types of instrument and borrower) showsinteresting...

This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...

Most countries hold large gross asset positions, lending in domestic currency and borrowingin foreign. Thus, their balance sheets are exposed to nominal exchange rates. We argue thatwhen asset markets are incomplete, nominal exchange rate exposure allows countries topartially insure against...

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...

Based on stylized evidence showing variation of the Gini coefficient of income inequality across skill cohorts and on the rapid rise in trade in technology-intensive goods, the ripple effects of technology transmission and income inequality are explored in a global Computable General Equilibrium...

This paper studies the evolution of worldwide military spending during 1970-2018. It finds thatmilitary spending in relation to GDP is converging, but into three separate groups of countries. Inthe largest group, responsible for 90 percent of worldwide spending, outlays have remainedstubbornly...

This study aims to test within a relatively homogeneous group of small states whatdifferentiates the growth performance of Pacific island countries (PICs) from their peers. Wefind that PICs are disadvantaged by distance and hampered by lower investment and exportscompared with other small island...