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divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find absolute convergence in expansions. The output costs of political and … financial crises are permanent on average, and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply … that panel data studies can help identify the sources of growth and that economic models should be capable of explaining …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014063095
shock. The impact could be larger if China's slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility …After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with … points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977796
production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084150
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086308
This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074695
This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations inEurope. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (thegranular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper alsoassesses the strength of spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942339
shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity(macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012944962
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output - the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011202
The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price … output growth, on average, over time. The analysis highlights the benefits of eliminating structural rigidities responsible …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053047
This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture the impact of the financial crisis in a more direct and efficient way. The model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043707