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We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model. We measure sectoral supply shocks utilizing teleworking and physical job proximity, and demand shocks with credit card purchases. Both shocks are also affected from changing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826004
The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250070
World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250078
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people's mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indicators based on anonymized and aggregate data provided by Vodafone for Italy,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250080
another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and … New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output … structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic's adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250089
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252036
We develop an integrated epidemiological-macroeconomic model to analyze the interplay between the COVID-19 outbreak and economic activity, as a tool for capacity building purposes. We illustrate a workhorse framework that combines a rich epidemiological model with an economic block to shed light...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252049
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis … during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252205
wake of the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Using a sample of nearly 700 firms from eleven countries in MENAP, we assess the non …. Our findings suggest that the health crisis has exacerbated vulnerabilities in the corporate sector, though the effects … are heterogenous across the region. Small firms, which entered the pandemic in a more vulnerable position, would remain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013288802
each of the years 2004-5 through the pandemic year 2020-21. These estimates include, for the first time, the effect of in …-kind food subsides on poverty and inequality. Extreme poverty was as low as 0.8 percent in the pre-pandemic year 2019, and food … transfers were instrumental in ensuring that it remained at that low level in pandemic year 2020. Post-food subsidy inequality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291176