Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the … factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies … inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis …

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup … (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and … obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real …-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the … results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to …

This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that …

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of … global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find … that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign …

We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven … subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore … improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent …

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a …