Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the … factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies … inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis …

This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real …-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the … results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to …

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup … (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and … obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …

Inflation has been rising during the pandemic against supply chain disruptions and a multi-year boom in global owner …-occupied house prices. We present some stylized facts pointing to house prices as a leading indicator of headline inflation in the U … inflation in two housing components (rent and owner-occupied housing cost) of the headline inflation and draw tentative …

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the … projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves … goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer …

useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger …