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Krznar, Ivo - 2017

This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a … key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962153

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model : Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

Karam, Philippe D.; Pranovich, Mikhail; Vlček, Jan - 2022

We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306733

The Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country

Houssa, Romain - 2015

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025500

Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Ubide, Angel J. - 2021

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944

Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles

Sever, Can - 2023

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353733

Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles : How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit

Ioannou, Iacovos - 2018

Lithuania's current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912503

Steady as She Goes-Estimating Potential Output During Financial 'Booms and Busts'

Berger, Helge - 2016

Potential output-in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term-is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial 'booms and busts' are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002146

How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil?

Dizioli, Allan; Wang, Hou - 2023

Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational … in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward …-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254728

Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Flamini, Valentina - 2019

Credit is key to support healthy and sustainable economic growth but excess aggregate credit growth can signal the build-up of imbalances and lead to systemic financial crisis. Hence, monitoring the credit cycle is key to identifying vulnerabilities, particularly in emerging markets, which tend...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889151

Macro-Financial Stability in the COVID-19 Crisis : Some Reflections

Adrian, Tobias; Natalucci, Fabio; Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed - 2023

The global financial system has shown remarkable resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite a sharp decline in economic activity and the initial financial market upheaval in March 2020. This paper takes stock of the factors that contributed to this resilience, focusing on the role of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258592

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