Showing 1 - 10 of 239
In contrast to expectations, remittances to Central America and the Caribbean (CAC) surprised positively during 2020 and 2021. This study revisits the key macro indicators driving remittances, looks at the heterogeneous impacts of the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID shocks, then uses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238520
The paper analyzes Jamaica's experience of low growth despite consistently high investment. Cross-country analysis … excessively on a few maturing sectors with limited scope for productivity growth. Furthermore, public investment has been crowded …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012778208
This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895118
We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store … investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks … leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102269
reallocated from the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions even further. To account for …. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productive investment. The model shows that these purchases reduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059093
This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence … relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of confidence over recent years in …, including a set of investment drivers (interest rates, unit labor costs, and confidence) is analyzed. The findings suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250091
The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966549
We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study …. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025500
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843312
Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858391