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Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles : Evidence from Hong Kong Sar
Kalra, Sanjay; Mihaljek, Dubravko; Duenwald, Christoph K. - 2021
This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980-98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from trend. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317986
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Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach
Vitek, Francis - 2012
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102206
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Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Vitek, Francis - 2014
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040410
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Real Sectoral Spillovers : A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession
Li, Nan - 2018
This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncraticshocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, andevaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. Wefind that the Great Recession is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913944
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Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information
Wu, Tao - 2015
We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037249
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Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Ubide, Angel J. - 2021
Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944
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The Negative Mean Output Gap
Aiyar, Shekhar S. - 2019
We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012862445
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Here Comes the Change : The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe
Binici, Mahir; Centorrino, Samuele; Cevik, Serhan; … - 2022
Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014264538
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Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
Dizioli, Allan - 2016
After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with … financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net … points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977796
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Labor Market Dynamics : A Hidden Markov Approach
Shibata, Ippei - 2020
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843312