overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three …

markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro …

positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …