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System Priors for Econometric Time Series

Andrle, Michal - 2017

The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966549

Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe : The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, But Not Greece

González Hermosillo, Brenda - 2014

This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines howkey European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paperanalyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053040

Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending : Does the Level of Real Interest Rates Matter?

Choi, Woon Gyu; Devereux, Michael B. - 2021

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318098

A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter

Vitek, Francis - 2019

This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variablesinto cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictionsamong these cyclical and trend components. We derive a closed form solution to anordinary problem featuring homogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895105

Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance

Cahuca, Pierre; Carcillo, Stéphane; Patault, Berengere; … - 2021

Does labor court uncertainty and judge subjectivity influence firms' performance? We study the economic consequences of judge decisions by collecting information on more than 145,000 Appeal court rulings, combined with administrative firm-level records covering the whole universe of French...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243055

Crime and the Economy in Mexican States : Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)

Verdugo Yepes, Concepcion - 2015

This paper studies the transmission of crime shocks to the economy in a sample of 32 Mexican states over the period … associated with the sign and magnitude of the responses of economic variables to crime shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020268

Crime and Output : Theory and Application to the Northern Triangle of Central America

Plotnikov, Dmitry - 2020

This paper presents a structural model of crime and output. Individuals make an occupationalchoice between criminal and … level of crime andeconomic activity. I calibrate the model to the Northern Triangle countries and conductseveral policy … experiments. I find that for a country like Honduras crime reduces GDP byabout 3 percent through its negative effect on employment …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842207

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Kanda, Daniel - 2007

This paper develops and estimates a model of the trade balance of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Credit flows and the fiscal stance are found to play a significant role in determining the trade balance. On this basis the paper discusses the trade-offs between monetary and fiscal policy settings needed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777954

Trade Patterns Among Industrial Countries : Their Relationship to Technology Differences and Capital Mobility

Saito, Mika - 2015

This paper compares two alternative measures of technology differences across industrial countries during 1970-92: one measures differences in labor productivity (the Ricardian measure), and the other differences in total factor productivity (the Hicksian measure). The distinction between the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012750623

Can the Imf's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?

Batista, Catia - 2014

Numerous reports have noted that the IMF`s medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sample forecasting properties relative to those of IMF projections. The model`s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012752436