Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country … negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast … revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO …

predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the … of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic …

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national …

analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by …

the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We …

effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors …

. This paper proposes a method to systematically forecast macroframework by integrating (1) conditional forecasting with … machine-learning techniques and (2) forecast reconciliation of hierarchical time series. We apply our method to an advanced … economy and a tourism-dependent economy using France and Seychelles and show that it can improve the WEO forecast …