Showing 1 - 10 of 611
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012907940
in April 2012. The survey aims to gain further insight into how reserve managers have reacted to the crisis to date. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080847
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047609
We explore whether the global financial crisis has had heterogeneous effects on traded goods differentiated by quality … quality exports grew faster before the crisis, but this trend reversed during the recession. Quantitatively, the effect is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996075
Using the U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the Pandemic Crisis … and those of the Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics-'social' (where … workers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fell more whereas employment in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828220
This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after … the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007-08. Sluggish … productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869286
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858386
We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013288911
Post-crisis dynamics show a shrinkage in the overall amount of crossborder bank lending,which has been interpreted in …. Some parts of the network are currently more interlinked regionally than before the crisis, and less dependent on major …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012942338
This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncraticshocks across different U ….S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, andevaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by … earlier literature that failed to find a significantrole of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913944