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Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Cerra, Valerie - 2020
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830838
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Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle
Taheri Sanjani, Marzie - 2014
shocks play a greater role in explaining the volatility of macroeconomic variables than marginal efficiency of investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043707
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Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations
Di Bella, C. Gabriel - 2018
Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about futureeconomic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectationsoriginate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimisticor pessimistic potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929916
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Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies
Bhattacharya, Rudrani - 2013
How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that … volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. We … consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre and post financial reform in India provides support for the model's key …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080461
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Idiosyncratic Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Emerging Market
Sandri, Damiano; Grigoli, Francesco; Luttini, Emiliano - 2022
than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306713
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Output and Inflation Co-Movement : An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts
Andrle, Michal - 2017
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? Bydocumenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cyclein a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations aredriven by one major factor. The positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962163
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Cyclical Patterns of Systemic Risk Metrics : Cross-Country Analysis
Iossifov, Plamen K.; Schmidt, Tomas Dutra - 2021
We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995-2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243043
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Growth Dynamics : The Myth of Economic Recovery
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta C. - 2013
financial crises are permanent on average, and long-term growth is negatively linked to volatility. These results also imply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014063095
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Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies : A Decomposition into Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Factors
Lian, Weicheng; Freitag, Andreas - 2022
Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i) both the cyclical and non-cyclical parts had surges across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082956
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Policy and Spillover Analysis in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
Vitek, Francis - 2014
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies. This panel dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model features a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages, and diverse spillover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013040410