positive forecast errors are costly and undermine public credibility of budget expenditure plans, the reverse outcome is …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests …

overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear to mask …

-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …