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Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Rebei, Nooman - 2020

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836533

The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2016

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998782

Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is it Different this Time Around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948538

What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?

Elekdag, Selim Ali - 2012

This paper seeks to uncover the main drivers of credit growth in emerging Asia using a multi-country structural vector … that domestic factors are more dominant than external factors in driving rapid credit growth in emerging Asia. This is … Asia …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110096

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters : Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

Beidas-Strom, Samya - 2019

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859857

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries : Do Oil Prices Matter?

Adedeji, Olumuyiwa S. - 2020

This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetarypolicy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. Thepotential channels through which oil prices could affect the effectiveness of monetary policyare discussed. We find...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843292

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Asset Price Risk

Roache, Shaun K. - 2013

We examine the effects of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) events in the United States on asset price risk using risk-neutral density functions estimated from options prices. Based on an event study including a key exchange rate, an equity index, and five commodities, we find that “tail...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075541

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Anand, Rahul - 2014

estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and … Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential …) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059855

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

Cashin, Paul Anthony - 2012

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR-model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979-2011Q2, to discriminate - between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098275

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Wu, Tao - 2015

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037249