This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banks' ability to deliver stable inflation … and minimize price dispersion. Relying on daily interest rates and inflation forecasts from major financial institutions … the dispersion of inflation expectations, a proxy for the extent of anchoring, which is based on the same analysts …

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring … tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi … data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary …

This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts … overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks … initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the …

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protractedperiod of low (and below …-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened theiranchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news … robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significantimpact of inflation news over recent years that had not been …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well … economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for … correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post …

Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or 'implicit … anchor', towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts by analysts, businesses … and trade unions for South Africa, we find that inflation expectations have become increasingly strongly anchored. That is …

This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trendinflation estimation, and …