Showing 1 - 10 of 599
inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent … theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out … Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772212
Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived fromthe theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecastsof currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into aVAR to capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925220
This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetarypolicy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. Thepotential channels through which oil prices could affect the effectiveness of monetary policyare discussed. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843292
Based on the observed behavior of monetary aggregates and exchange rates, we classify inflation stabilization episodes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318682
Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillovers. Standard New Keynesian models predict the cross-border transmission of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913940
This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the "facts on the ground" and "methodological...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102261
We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977825
relationship of various measures of money and inflation. After demonstrating that previous naïve correlations between money and … inflation as established in the 20th century literature have largely disappeared, we explain why this cannot be taken as support …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243075
We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced … and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation … increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947825
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role … for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA's rapid growth, its integration with the global economy …, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015595