Showing 1 - 10 of 590
We present a simple macroeconomic model with a continuum of primary commodities used in the production of the final good, such that the real prices of commodities have a factor structure. One factor captures the combined contribution of all aggregate shocks which have no direct effects on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080222
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well … of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly … trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111408
We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980 … volatility but the causality runs the other way around for the post-liberalization period. These findings suggest that gold price … volatility plays a key role in explaining both the excessive exchange rate volatility and current disproportionate share of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098635
secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and … investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple … breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076320
Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011192
After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, amongother policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. andCanada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada.Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913916
When the U.S. economy sneezes, do emerging markets catch a cold? We show that economic news, and not just monetary policy, in the United States affects financial conditions in emerging markets. News about U.S. employment has the strongest effects, followed by news about economic activity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350292
The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies — dubbed spillovers — is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028665
This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001-2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098581
effect on commodity prices. China's impact on world commodity markets is rising but, perhaps surprisingly, remains smaller … be more persistent and have larger effects on the rest of the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102288