Showing 1 - 10 of 713
We study the effect of COVID-19 containment measures on expected stock price volatility in some advanced economies …-month-ahead volatility indices dropped following announcements of initial or re-imposed lockdowns, and that they did not drop significantly … following the easing of lockdowns. Such patterns are not as strong for three-month-ahead expected volatility and generally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300017
Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G-20 countries. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966965
One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of contagion. We come up with an approach to simulate the potential impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050679
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national … policy analysis, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102206
(RBA) have had on the level and volatility of the Australian dollar exchange rate. First, using an event study we evaluate … Australian dollar. Second, we investigate the effects of RBA intervention policies on exchange rate volatility over the floating … volatility, which suggests that official intervention may have added to market uncertainty. Overall, the effects of RBA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211943
This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212035
reverberate around the world much more strongly than shocks from other regions, including the Euro area, while inward spillovers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084151
global risk premiums, China's influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to … that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977790
Understanding how markets are connected and shocks are transmitted is an important issue for policymakers and market participants. In this paper, we examine the connectedness of Asian equity markets within the region and vis-à-vis other major global markets. Using time-varying connectedness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993728
spillovers (or risk greater volatility owing to comovement with foreign markets) …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043720