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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2016
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998782
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086323
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Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil
Rebei, Nooman - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836533
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Global House Price Fluctuations : Synchronization and Determinants
Hirata, Hideaki - 2013
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086308
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Workers' Remittances : An Overlooked Channel of International Business Cycle Transmission?
Barajas, Adolfo - 2012
-recipient countries and the rest of the world. Using both aggregate and bilateral remittances data in a panel data setting, the study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098276
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Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?
Monnet, Eric - 2016
period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during … level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world …. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993729
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The Global Financial Crisis : An Anatomy of Global Growth
Matheson, Troy - 2013
The global financial crisis was a stark reminder of the importance of cross-country linkages in the global economy. We document growth synchronization across a diverse group of 185 countries covering 7 regions, and pay particular attention to the period around the global financial crisis. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082486
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The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles
Cashin, Paul Anthony - 2013
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088734
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Oil Prices and the Global Economy : Is it Different this Time Around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2017
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948538
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The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy
Cashin, Paul Anthony - 2012
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR-model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979-2011Q2, to discriminate - between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098275