Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protractedperiod of low (and below …-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened theiranchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news … robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significantimpact of inflation news over recent years that had not been …

We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure …

This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not … frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly … half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro …

are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this issue, we estimate an open …-economy, New Keynsian Phillips curve, in which we control for imported inflation. Regression results suggest that falling food and … energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver. But low core inflation in the euro area has also had a clear and …

inflation. Through a novel consumption deflator decomposition, we show that import prices account for 40 percent of the average … convergence of inflation to target over the next two years. Monetary policy will thus need to remain restrictive to anchor …

We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven … subcomponents of core inflation and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. We use the model’s disaggregated structure to explore … improve on the ability to forecast inflation. In the baseline, the projection for core inflation is centered above 3 percent …

While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment … domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines … the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and …