China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from...

Bank stress tests of climate change risks are relatively new, but are rapidly proliferating. The IMF and World Bank staff collaborated to develop an experimental macro scenario stress testing approach to examine physical risks for banks by building a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model...

This paper investigates the connection between climate change and energy security in Europe and provides empirical evidence that these issues are the two faces of the same coin. Using a panel of 39 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2019, the empirical analysis presented in this paper...

After building up foreign currency denominated (FC) liabilities over several years, Colombian firms might be vulnerable to a shift in external conditions. We undertake three empirical exercises to better understand these vulnerabilities. First, we identify the determinants of FC borrowing....

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth inColombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework alsocaptures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peaceagreement with the...