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forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and … best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369447
The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769228
Using realized volatility to estimate conditional variance of financial returns, we compare forecasts of volatility from linear GARCH models with asymmetric ones. We consider horizons extending to 30 days. Forecasts are compared using three different evaluation tests. With data from an equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599661