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This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008519485
-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876579
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019577
indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for forecasting economic activity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019596