, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary …

sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages …

We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures …. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting …

forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and … best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are …

against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two …

central banking in the past. In large part, this heterogeneity can be traced to differences in forecasting models. While some …