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Czech Koruna and Polish Zloty Currency Options; Information Contnent and Eu-Accession Implications
Morales, Armando Méndez - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
Currency option implied volatility predicts more efficiently exchange rate volatility for the Polish zloty relative to the Czech koruna, reflecting differences in the frequency of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. A GARCH model shows a positive impact of the introduction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248136
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Imf Drawing Programs; Participation Determinants and Forecasting
Cerutti, Eugenio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248203
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The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651
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Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?
Cheung, Yin-Wong; Pascual, Antonio Garcia; Chinn, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263978
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A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations; Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models
Barrionuevo, José M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992
A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264063
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Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Timmermann, Allan; Catão, Luis; Aiolfi, Marco - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264082
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Systemic Real and Financial Risks; Measurement, Forecasting, and Stress Testing
Lucchetta, Marcella; Nicoló, Gianni De - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
exhibits significant out-of sample forecasting power for tail real and financial risk realizations, and that stress testing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654174
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Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?
Reichsfeld, David A; Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures …. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369445
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Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies
Nkusu, Mwanza - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
We analyze the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of NPL in panel regressions and confirm that adverse macroeconomic developments are associated with rising NPL. Second, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203534
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Fiscal Policy Implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Lledo, Victor Duarte; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
improve the quality and timeliness of economic data; enhance forecasting capacity; adopt realistic fiscal plans; and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203550