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The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651

Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

Phillips, Steven; Musso, Alberto - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001

“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263972

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Pascual, Antonio Garcia; Chinn, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263978

The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledgeon Aggregate Output

Joutz, Frederick L.; Abdih, Yasser - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper investigates the impact of public capital on private sector output by testing and estimating an aggregate production function for the U.S. economy over the postwar period augmented to include the stock of public capital as an additional factor input. We use patent applications to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263996

A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations; Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models

Barrionuevo, José M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992

A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264063

Real Effects of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis; Is it a Demand or a Finance Shock?

Tong, Hui; Wei, Shang-Jin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We develop a methodology to study how the subprime crisis spills over to the real economy. Does it manifest itself primarily through reducing consumer demand or through tightening liquidity constraint on non-financial firms? Since most non-financial firms have much larger cash holding than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264107

Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages

Helbling, Thomas; Bayoumi, Tamim - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264125

Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information

Wu, Tao; Cavallo, Michele - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650637

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth; Lessons From Jordan

Raissi, Mehdi; Mohaddes, Kamiar - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401201

Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?

Reichsfeld, David A; Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures …. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369445