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Imf Drawing Programs; Participation Determinants and Forecasting

Cerutti, Eugenio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248203

Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdownon Thai Growth

Aiyar, Shekhar; Tchakarov, Ivan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248323

On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications

Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper studies asymptotically the bias of the fixed effect (FE) estimator induced by cross-section heterogeneity in the slope parameters of stationary vector autoregressions (VARs). The paper also compares the FE, the mean group estimator (MG), and a simple instrumental variable alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263898

Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Pascual, Antonio Garcia; Chinn, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263978

The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Knowledgeon Aggregate Output

Joutz, Frederick L.; Abdih, Yasser - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

This paper investigates the impact of public capital on private sector output by testing and estimating an aggregate production function for the U.S. economy over the postwar period augmented to include the stock of public capital as an additional factor input. We use patent applications to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263996

A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations; Evidence From the World Economic Outlook and Time Series Models

Barrionuevo, José M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992

A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264063

Real Effects of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis; Is it a Demand or a Finance Shock?

Tong, Hui; Wei, Shang-Jin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We develop a methodology to study how the subprime crisis spills over to the real economy. Does it manifest itself primarily through reducing consumer demand or through tightening liquidity constraint on non-financial firms? Since most non-financial firms have much larger cash holding than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264107

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Goodhart, C. A. E.; Basurto, Miguel A. Segoviano; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264113

Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth; Lessons From Jordan

Raissi, Mehdi; Mohaddes, Kamiar - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401201

Do Commodity Futures Help Forecast Spot Prices?

Reichsfeld, David A; Roache, Shaun K. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011

We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test …-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures …. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369445