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The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677598
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND RISK -- III. DEBT DYNAMICS AND THE CONDUCT OF FISCAL POLICY -- IV. RISKS TO DEBT SUSTAINABILITY IN FIVE EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES -- V. CONCLUSION -- Appendix -- REFERENCES.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691046
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FISCAL FRAMEWORKS -- III. DEVELOPMENTS UNDER THE FISCAL FRAMEWORK -- IV. EXPLAINING DIVERGENT COUNTRY EXPERIENCES: EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691180
The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409031
Despite growing interest among policymakers, there is no theory of independent fiscal institutions. The emerging literature on "fiscal councils" typically makes informal parallels with the theory of central bank independence, but a very simple formal example shows that such a shortcut is flawed....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203526
This paper discusses the role of fiscal institutions, including budget rules and non-partisan agencies, in enhancing fiscal discipline. A dynamic model of fiscal policy shows that optimal institutions lack credibility unless the costs to bypass them are sufficiently high. In our model, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825631
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826339
The Stability and Growth Pact has been a success in numerous EU countries, especially in guiding them toward underlying fiscal balance ahead of population aging. These countries tend to be smaller, subject to greater macroeconomic volatility, and reliant on a form of fiscal governance that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768798
Expenditure in Iceland, especially related to the government wage bill, has tended to move in a procyclical manner, related to the fragmentation of political decision making. Iceland's elevated macroeconomic volatility reinforces these tendencies, as large booms unleash greater fiscal pressures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768806
The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768950