Showing 1 - 10 of 23
We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790285
business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790326
Many central banks target an inflation rate near two percent. This essay argues that policymakers would do better to … target four percent inflation. A four percent target would ease the constraints on monetary policy arising from the zero … cost, because four percent inflation does not harm an economy significantly. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790372
We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for …-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest … inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242400
inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990724
Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been … remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s … observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790401
-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including … the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good … general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242402
This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and …, there is a negative long-run relationship between inflation and economic growth in India. We also find statistically …-significant inflation-growth threshold effects in the case of states with persistently-elevated inflation rates of above 5.5 percent. This …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142122
We study whether clarity of central bank inflation reports affects return volatility in financial markets. We measure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959473
Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are … model of the Indian economy, which incorporates pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate … that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959475