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The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries

Danninger, Stephan; Kyobe, Annette; Cangiano, M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting … forecasts. A theoretical model explains forecasting interference through government corruption. The data broadly supports the …-transparency, formality, and organizational simplicity-that characterize revenue-forecasting practices, and assesses their effectiveness in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604860

How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources

Elekdag, Selim - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

The main objective of this paper is to quantify the relationship between the global economic environment and the number of Stand-By Arrangements (SBAs). The results suggest that oil prices, world interest rates, and the global business cycle are the most influential indicators that affect the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604884

Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

Faal, Ebrima - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604901

Common Volatility Trends in the Central and Eastern European Currencies and the Euro

Pramor, Marcus; Tamirisa, Natalia T. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

How much convergence has been achieved between Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and the eurozone? We explore this question by comparing long-run volatility trends in CEE currencies and the euro. We find that these trends are closely correlated, pointing to convergence in the economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605079

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia

Kalra, Sanjay - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 5 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605210

Testing the Informational Efficiency of OTC Optionson Emerging Market Currencies

Chan-Lau, Jorge A.; Morales, Armando Méndez - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605254

Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems

Oka, Chikako - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605345

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap; An Application to Sweden

Saxena, Sweta Chaman; Cerra, Valerie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605416

A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

Ermolaev, Igor; Juillard, Michel; Carabenciov, Ioan; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263685

The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited

Meredith, Guy; Ma, Yue - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate … correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum …" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263741